Britain is at risk of sleepwalking into a food security crisis. For a generation, the nation has watched farmland disappear under housing, infrastructure and environmental initiatives, while the rate of growth in agricultural yields and domestic food production has slowed as a result of challenging weather conditions and a greater focus on agri-environmental policies. Modelling these trends forward to 2050, and the evidence is stark: without urgent policy change, the UK is set to produce far less of its own food, relying ever more heavily on imports from a volatile world market, and increasing the risk of a domestic food security crisis, warns economist Dr Derrick Wilkinson.

 

This week, Science for Sustainable Agriculture (SSA) published a new modelling study, entitled UK Food Security – Outlook to 2050, which uses historical trends in agricultural land use, yields and aggregated food production over the past 25 years to develop forward-looking projections for food security to 2050, based on a range of scenarios in terms of population growth and land use policies.   

 

The study was conducted in response to the 30:50:50 initiative launched earlier this year by the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Science and Technology in Agriculture (APPGSTA), setting out a new vision for farmers to produce more from less – increasing UK agricultural production by 30% by 2050 while reducing farming’s environmental footprint by 50% per unit of output, in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, land use, water use and soil health. APPGSTA asked whether the current farming, regulatory and R&D policy environment is fit-for-purpose to deliver against the 30:50:50 agenda.

 

The evidence is stark. Over the past quarter of a century, the UK has lost 771,000 hectares of farmland — 4.4% of its agricultural area. This loss has been steady but relentless, with arable land giving way to development and renewable energy projects, and livestock land lost to environmental schemes and woodland expansion.

 

Over the same period, aggregated food yields per hectare have increased by about 15%, but those gains have not offset the shrinking farmland base or the demands of an increasing population. Overall, food production on UK farms rose by just 10% between 2000 and 2024, while the population grew by nearly 15%. That left Britons with 5% less home-grown food per person, while self-sufficiency in primary agricultural products fell by 12%.

 

These trends are worrying enough. More concerning still is their recent slowdown: the rate of growth in domestic yields and food production has declined over the past 10 to 15 years, constrained by rising input costs, greater weather extremes, loss of key crop protection tools, and farm policies that incentivise production-limiting practices.

 

Looking ahead: the 2050 outlook

If present trends continue, Britain could lose another 835,000 hectares of farmland by 2050 — around 5% of what remains. But if government policies for housing, net zero, tree planting and nature restoration are fully implemented, the losses could be far worse: nearly 24% of farmland at risk, most of it arable.

 

In a worst-case scenario, agricultural production could fall by almost a third. Factor in a projected population of up to 80 million, and per capita domestic food production could decline by 39%. On an all-food basis, that would mean domestic self-sufficiency falling sharply from around 60% today. 

 

The consequences are obvious. Imports will have to make up the shortfall, doubling or even tripling from today’s levels. But Britain would be trying to source food in an increasingly competitive global marketplace, at a time when climate shocks, geopolitical tensions and population growth are putting supplies under pressure worldwide. 

 

Dependence on volatile international markets is not a strategy; it is a gamble. Greater reliance on food imports could expose UK households to higher prices and global supply disruptions, particularly affecting lower-income groups. It would also off-shore the environmental footprint of our food supply, with potentially even greater biodiversity and climate impacts elsewhere. 

 

Competing pressures on land

No one disputes the importance of tackling climate change or restoring biodiversity. Nor is there any question that housing, renewable energy, and infrastructure all require land. But the stark reality is that Britain is running out of space.

 

Solar farms already cover as much as 21,000 hectares of land, with projections rising to 150,000–200,000 hectares by 2050. Bioenergy crops could claim up to half a million hectares more. Woodland expansion, peatland restoration, tree planting and nature recovery schemes all demand space that was once used to produce food.

 

Together, these competing demands are set to create a land use crunch that threatens Britain’s ability to feed itself. For too long, food production has been ignored in land use policy. That must change.

 

The choice: land sparing or land sharing

Policymakers and environmental groups often frame the land use challenge as one of balancing farming and the environment through “land sharing” — encouraging wildlife-friendly practices across the farmed landscape. While appealing, this approach tends to reduce yields and requires more land to produce the same amount of food.

 

By contrast, the scientific evidence increasingly points to “land sparing” — concentrating high-yield production on the most suitable farmland, while setting aside other areas for environmental purposes — as a more effective route to reconciling food security with net zero and biodiversity goals. 

 

But without a sharper focus on domestic farm productivity gains, the risk is clear: we will sacrifice food production at home and risk causing even greater environmental harms abroad.

 

Innovation is essential

If farmland must do more with less, innovation is the only answer. That means embracing new crop technologies, digital farming, robotics, and precision agriculture. It means investing in plant breeding, soil health, and sustainable intensification. It also means ensuring farmers have access to the tools they need — from fertilisers to crop protection — to maintain yields responsibly.

 

Yet current government policy is moving in the opposite direction, removing inputs without providing viable alternatives and rewarding farmers for taking land out of production. A radical rethink is overdue.

 

A call for joined-up policy

Food security can no longer be treated as an afterthought in land and environmental policy. It must be a central objective, considered alongside climate and biodiversity. It will require much better coordination and joined-up thinking across government departments responsible for farming, environment, energy, housing, and trade.

 

Farm support policies should prioritise high-yield production on the most productive farmland, while still enabling environmental gains elsewhere. Trade policy should avoid undermining domestic producers with imports produced to lower standards. And population policy should recognise its direct implications for food demand.

 

Above all, policymakers must acknowledge the reality that Britain cannot reliably meet its food needs by allowing domestic output to decline and depending ever more heavily on imports. 

 

At the same time, and writing as a former NFU chief economist, I am deeply concerned for our farmers being led down a dead-end path towards lower yielding, so-called ‘nature friendly’ farming. 

 

The signals are clear that, outside the EU, taxpayer support for UK agriculture is being progressively removed and dismantled. 

 

But producers should not expect the private sector to make up the shortfall. 

 

Over time, the banks, supermarkets and food companies currently making positive noises about ‘alternative markets’ for lower-yielding regen ag and nature-friendly farming will come to expect it as the norm, just as the promised price premium for farm assured products swiftly became a discount for non-assured products.       

 

No other sector of industry would knowingly turn its back on technologies and innovations with the potential to increase output and resource use efficiency. Nor should British agriculture.  

 

A matter of national security

The lesson of the past 25 years is clear. We are losing farmland faster than we are improving yields, and we are not keeping up with demand. The lesson of the next 25 years could be harsher still: that in pursuit of laudable environmental goals, we neglected the basic necessity of feeding ourselves.

 

Government ministers are constantly telling us that food security is national security. It is time they matched those words with policy action. 

 

If Britain is to restore the balance between biodiversity, climate commitments and food production, we must act now. We cannot afford to continue down a path where farmland disappears, yields stagnate, and imports soar. 

 

As Mark Twain once observed: “Buy land, they’re not making it anymore.” For the UK, the challenge is to use the land we have as wisely as possible — to ensure that future generations inherit a country able to feed itself.

 

Dr Derrick Wilkinson is a retired UK economist with nearly 40 years’ international experience with the development, analysis, integration and coordination of global trade, environment and agriculture policies. A former chief economist at both the NFU and CLA, he is the author of numerous pioneering papers and research projects published, including in major peer reviewed journals.