Recent evidence from a major US-EU study concludes that innovation-led productivity growth has been the single most important factor limiting agricultural emissions globally, enabling more food to be produced with less environmental impact. Meanwhile, Defra’s National Security Assessment warns that biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse threaten global food supplies, making UK reliance on imports increasingly risky. And research led by Professor Andrew Balmford of the University of Cambridge further shows that farm policies which reduce UK food production can displace environmental damage to more biodiverse regions overseas, worsening global biodiversity loss. Together, this evidence reinforces the APPGSTA’s 30:50:50 mission – harnessing agricultural innovation to produce 30% more food with 50% less environmental impact by 2050 – as the basis for a radical reset of UK farm policy to deliver improved outcomes for food security, climate resilience and nature conservation, argues APPGSTA vice-chair Charlie Dewhirst MP.

 

With mounting pressures on currently farmed land, stalled agricultural productivity growth, and escalating global environmental risks, the UK faces a future in which domestic food supply may shrink just as climate shocks, geopolitical instability and biodiversity loss make global food systems more fragile.

 

Central to this agenda is the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Science and Technology in Agriculture’s (APPGSTA) 30:50:50 mission – a plan to harness the latest advances in agricultural science and innovation to raise UK farm output by 30% by 2050 while halving environmental impact, underpinned by a statutory target of 75% food self-sufficiency, up from 60% at present.

 

Two recently published scientific assessments - a major Cornell University study on productivity and emissions and a Defra National Security Assessment on biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse – both reinforce this ‘more from less’ policy imperative: the UK must prioritise science-led sustainable intensification in agriculture if we are to feed ourselves sustainably by 2050.

 

Productivity is key to lower emissions and a sustainable food supply

Published in Science Advances in January 2026, researchers from Cornell University and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre analysed agricultural productivity, inputs, outputs and greenhouse gas emissions from 1961–2021. The study’s key finding is that global agricultural productivity - output per unit of input - grew by roughly 270%, while total emissions rose by just 45% over the same period. This implies that efficiency gains - not land expansion - have been the principal force moderating agricultural emissions, by enabling more food production with relatively less environmental cost.

 

The study’s authors argue that technological advances – better genetics, improved inputs and agronomy, and precision farming - have been major contributors to this decoupling, and that scientific innovation has been central to expanding food production while reducing emissions per unit of output. They emphasise the importance of policy and investments which support agricultural R&D, noting that stagnation in US research investment has coincided with slowing productivity growth, and suggesting that future emissions reductions are achievable only if innovation continues.

 

For UK agriculture, which faces a long-term productivity plateau, this insight is vital. If the UK cannot increase output per hectare while lowering emissions, then not only will domestic food production fall as land pressures intensify, but climate impact per unit of food may also rise. The Cornell evidence therefore reinforces the scientific basis for the All-Party Group’s emphasis on productivity growth as an environmental as well as a food security priority.

 

Ecosystem collapse and national food security

Also in January 2026, Defra’s national security assessment on Global Biodiversity Loss, Ecosystem Collapse and National Security was published, framing biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation as direct threats to UK national security. It concludes with high confidence that many global ecosystems - including forests, coral reefs and freshwater systems - are heading for collapse by 2030–2050, with severe consequences for climate regulation, water availability and global agricultural productivity.

 

Crucially, the assessment warns that without significant increases in food system and supply chain resilience, the UK would struggle to maintain food security if ecosystem collapse drives geopolitical competition for limited food supplies. Given that we already import a significant portion of our food, systemic shocks elsewhere would reverberate domestically unless the UK bolsters its own production and resilience.

 

This aligns directly with the All-Party Group’s warning about shrinking productive land: if land pressures and stagnant yields persist, the UK will become more dependent on imports at a time when global food supply - and the ecosystems that underpin it - are becoming less predictable. The security dimension, therefore, links agricultural policy not just to sustainability goals but to national stability.

 

The “biodiversity leak” and the global impacts of UK farm policy

Adding a further dimension are the findings of conservation research led by Professor Andrew Balmford and colleagues on what they call the “biodiversity leak.” This research, published in 2025, concludes that domestic farm policies which take farmland out of production or promote lower-yielding practices - even for conservation - can inadvertently cause significantly more biodiversity harm on a global basis if reduced food production here is compensated by imports from more biodiverse regions.

 

From a UK perspective, Balmford’s analysis argues that rewilding productive farmland or promoting land-sharing practices that reduce yields can shift food production to regions in Africa, South America and other areas, where ecosystem value per unit area is far higher. In some scenarios, reclaiming UK cropland for nature could result in as much as five times more damage to global biodiversity than the local benefits gained from habitat restoration - simply because the displaced food production must occur elsewhere where the biodiversity stakes are higher.

 

This “biodiversity leak” concept runs counter to many conventional conservation narratives which assume that leaving farmland uncultivated will de facto benefit global biodiversity. Instead, the research emphasises that policies must consider the full global consequences of reduced domestic production and import substitution, and that optimising output on existing farmland is one of the most effective ways to reduce total global biodiversity pressure.

 

Sustainable intensification as the strategic imperative

Taken together, this evidence creates a compelling narrative in support of sustainable intensification as the way forward for UK agriculture:

 

• The Cornell research shows that technology-driven gains in global agricultural productivity have historically limited emissions and can continue to do so if innovation is prioritised.

• Defra’s national security assessment makes clear that global ecosystem collapse poses a direct risk to UK food security, and that reliance on imports in a destabilised world is a strategic vulnerability.

• Professor Balmford’s research warns that apparently well-intentioned agri-environmental policies which reduce domestic production without compensating for the displaced impacts may further aggravate global biodiversity loss.

 

These insights point to a clear policy imperative for UK agriculture: we cannot afford to choose between productivity and sustainability - we must pursue both simultaneously.

 

This is precisely the objective of the APPGSTA 30:50:50 mission: to produce 30% more food with 50% less environmental impact by 2050, through investment in science, innovation and data-driven farming. This sustainable intensification approach aims to close yield gaps, boost farm-level productivity, reduce emissions and protect biodiversity both at home and abroad.

 

Aligning UK policy behind the 30:50:50 mission

Delivering the 30:50:50 mission will require a fundamental realignment of UK agriculture and land use policy. Currently, fragmented departmental agendas and competing environmental priorities - from renewable energy to tree-planting, nature restoration and agri-environmental schemes - risk working at cross-purposes. If policies reduce domestic output without delivering compensating gains in productivity or resilience, they may undermine both food security and environmental goals.

 

Instead, government must align policy around clear, long-term objectives for UK agriculture, and prioritise innovations in crop and livestock genetics, precision farming, better use of farm data, improved knowledge exchange and outcomes-based support. It must also recognise the global implications of domestic choices, and that farming and land use policies which reduce or displace domestic food production can lead to increased pressure on vital ecosystems overseas.

 

The APPGSTA’s 30:50:50 mission provides a long-term, strategic policy framework to reconcile food security, climate and biodiversity goals.

 

The UK has the scientific expertise and farming capability to deliver on this agenda. What is needed now is the political will and policy coherence to turn this evidence into action - securing Britain’s food future in a changing world while contributing to global environmental sustainability.

 

Charlie Dewhirst has served as Conservative MP for Bridlington & the Wolds since July 2024. From a pig farming family near Driffield in East Yorkshire, he is a former policy adviser at the National Pig Association. A strong advocate of farming and rural interests in Parliament, Charlie is a member of the House of Commons EFRA Committee and vice-chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Science & Technology in Agriculture.