Will climate change starve us all?

No, but bad science communication and fear mongering might

Alex Smith

The general public is subjected to outright fear mongering when it comes to the future of food. Beyond soil degradation and the “number of harvests left”, climate change is another cause for food panic. For journalists heralding the “end of food” as we know it, the main sources are typically long-standing critics of industrial food production, with a vested interest in its alternatives. A global switch to organic or regenerative agriculture would be far worse for food production and climate mitigation than continuing to rely on high-efficiency, conventional agriculture. To be sure, climate change will impact our food system. But technological breakthroughs and the adoption of modern technologies will also impact our food systems for the better. Rejecting industrial agriculture would be a grave mistake, argues Alex Smith, Editorial Director at The Breakthrough Institute.

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Posh nosh: With a gaping black hole in the public finances, why are British taxpayers still subsidising premium-priced organic food?

Dr Julian Little & Daniel Pearsall

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In the wake of the cost-of-living crisis, reports of plummeting consumer demand for more expensive organic food must pose a dilemma for the new Labour Government. No fewer than 14 of the 102 options currently available to farmers under Defra’s Sustainable Farming Incentive are explicitly designed to support and/or increase organic production in England, and the payment rates are eye-wateringly high. With a £22bn black hole in the public finances, and cuts to departmental budgets on the cards, why are British taxpayers subsidising the production of food most people cannot afford? And how does it square with Labour Ministers’ pledge that ‘food security is national security’, when a recent report from Natural England warned that increasing the area of lower-yielding organic farming would reduce domestic food production by up to 25%, ask science communicator Dr Julian Little and SSA co-ordinator Daniel Pearsall.   

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NEWS: UK scientists welcome positive signal from Defra Minister on precision breeding plans

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The two scientists behind a joint letter urging early action by the new Labour Government to implement the Genetic Technology (Precision Breeding) Act 2023 in England have welcomed what they describe as a ‘positive response’ from the Defra Minister responsible, Daniel Zeichner MP.

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Oilseed rape in crisis: But where is Defra's chief scientist?

Paul Temple

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Reports that UK self-sufficiency in home-grown vegetable oil has more than halved from 40% to 15%, and could fall even further, present a major food security test for the new UK Government, writes Yorkshire farmer Paul Temple. But the plight of the UK oilseed rape crop also raises fundamental questions about the scientific basis for policy decisions intended to protect biodiversity and the environment. Do these decisions take sufficient account of the ecological consequences of any potential changes they may cause in cropping systems, such as a 62% decline in plantings of a key flowering crop, he asks.

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Why we must stand up for intensive farming

Prof Helen Sang & Daniel Pearsall

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The BBC’s coverage of farming and countryside issues, and its editorial bias in favour of small-scale, more extensive forms of agriculture, may be discouraging a more open and evidence-based conversation about sustainable farming and food production. Greater sustainable intensification in agriculture is urgently needed if we are to feed ourselves without wrecking the planet. The world needs to increase food production and availability by up to 70% by 2050 to keep pace with the food needs of an expanding global population, in the face of a changing climate, biodiversity loss and pressure on finite natural resources of land, energy and water. Advances in agricultural science and technology offer multiple ways to deliver on this objective, but only if farmers have the social licence to use them. Influential public service broadcasters like the BBC must be willing to support a more balanced debate, rooted in scientific evidence, rather than pandering to those who hanker for a nostalgic and idealistic past which, in all probability, never actually existed, argue livestock geneticist Professor Helen Sang and SSA co-ordinator Daniel Pearsall. 

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The ultimate irony. Organic farming exempt from planned EU greenwashing rules

Dr Derrick Wilkinson & Daniel Pearsall

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When it comes to 'greenwashing', the organic sector is one of the major culprits, so it is perhaps the ultimate irony that the EU's proposed Green Claims Directive, designed to prevent consumers being misled about a product's environmental credentials, specifically excludes organic products. Under the new rules, consumers can continue to be duped into paying a premium for organic food, believing they are doing their bit for the environment, when the scientific evidence surrounding the organic sector's green credentials is highly contested, primarily because organic farming consumes much more land and natural resources than equivalent non-organic farming systems to produce the same amount of food. Thankfully, the EU rules will not apply in the UK, where there have been numerous occasions on which the organic sector has been called to account for greenwashing. People should be free to choose organic. But in doing so they should not be misled about its environmental impacts. It is time to adopt consistent, science-based metrics at farm-level to let consumers know how products compare in terms of their impact across a range of sustainability factors, including land and water use, carbon emissions, as well as their effects on soil health, water quality and biodiversity, argue retired UK economist Dr Derrick Wilkinson and SSA co-ordinator Daniel Pearsall. 

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Why humanity is good for nature

Matt Ridley

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Because good news is no news, stories of environmental doom – such as collapsing bee colonies – catch the headlines and linger in the public consciousness, despite being outdated and wrong, writes Matt Ridley. He highlights examples of species after species which have successfully recovered from the brink of extinction in recent decades, thanks in part to human intervention. He also notes that the world as a whole is now reforesting rather than deforesting. Contrary to the prevailing view that the forest area is declining, global tree cover has actually increased by 2.24 million square kilometres since 1982. And he points to the phenomenon of ‘global greening’, with the earth’s green vegetation increasing by around 15 per cent over 30 years to the mid-2010s, as a potentially stronger signal of the impact of rising CO2 concentrations on the planet than global warming. Of course, not all environmental news is good today, he accepts. Overfishing of the oceans continues, invasive species are causing extinction of unique subspecies, plastic pollution of the sea is a disgrace, sewage is spilling into rivers, habitats are fragmented by concrete sprawl and so on. But in Britain, the return of the otter, the beaver, the osprey, the red kite and the sea eagle would have astonished conservationists of the 1960s. Today’s environmentalists and news editors should try selling hope as well as fear. A better future is possible.

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ELM: What are Defra ministers going to do about it?

Paul Temple

A new report from the Government’s watchdog, the National Audit Office, is highly critical of Defra’s Environmental Land Management (ELM) scheme, and the lack of evidence to support the department’s assumptions about its projected outcomes, particularly in relation to food security and increased productivity. This mirrors previous research led by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), which identified a high risk of displacement of food production as a result of yield-reducing ELM options, with unknown effects on either domestic food security or the environment. Reports that the UK is set to import more oilseed rape than it produces for the first time ever this year therefore pose a dilemma for the new ministerial team at Defra. In a Labour Government elected with a commitment to drive economic growth, and whose leader has repeatedly declared that “food security is national security”, why would Defra ministers make a commitment to maintain the outgoing Government’s flawed policy blueprint for agriculture without first examining the evidence behind it, asks mixed farmer Paul Temple.

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NEWS: Call for early implementation of precision breeding rules in England

Scientific and industry leaders are urging Ministers in the new Labour Government to act quickly and decisively in bringing forward the secondary legislation needed to implement the Genetic Technology (Precision Breeding) Act 2023 in England.​

In an open letter addressed to Ministers in Defra and the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, more than 50 leading organisations and individuals across the scientific, food processing, farming, breeding, veterinary and input supply sectors have welcomed the signing into law of the Precision Breeding Act in March 2023 as a significant milestone for sustainable innovation in food and agriculture, but note that until detailed implementing rules are introduced at Westminster, the Act itself serves no functional purpose.

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Supply chain interest in climate positive farming: is it a route to net zero?

Dr Nigel Davies

In the brewing and distilling sectors, the evidence is mounting that the adoption of regenerative farming practices such as minimum tillage and cover cropping by malting barley growers can contribute significantly to Scope 3 emissions targets, by reducing farm-level GHG emissions and increasing soil carbon sequestration. But for this to translate at scale into ‘triple win’ benefits for people, prosperity and the planet, and to avoid claims of greenwashing, the supply chain must collaborate to provide consistent, robust, outcomes-based data and, by sharing best practice, give growers the confidence to embrace these practices without incurring yield penalties or high investment costs. Reliable metrics are already in place for farm-level carbon emissions, and are in development to measure soil carbon sequestration. In addition, a relentless focus on maintaining and increasing crop yields through improved soil health will be imperative to ensure the transition is sustainable in the long-term for growers, maltsters and end-processors, argues industry sustainability consultant Dr Nigel Davies.

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Environmental NGOs are undermining society’s need for more climate-adaptive, sustainable farming

Stuart Smyth

Thirty-years into the agricultural biotechnology revolution, economist Stuart Smyth notes that the initial science-based concerns about GM crops posed by environmental NGOs have proved unfounded, based on more than twenty years of peer-reviewed research, assessment and analysis. But these activist groups still opt to ignore the ever-mounting evidence and continue to promote misinformation, scaring people into rejecting demonstrably beneficial farming technologies. In doing so, they risk being marginalised as their hypocrisy becomes clear, but the public still feels the pain of their myopia, radicalisation and self-indulgence.

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What will a Labour UK Government mean for agricultural science and innovation?

Professor Johnathan Napier

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UK plant scientist Professor Johnathan Napier welcomes the newly elected Labour Government’s willingness to break new ground in relation to science policy, applauding plans for a new Regulatory Innovation Office, and suggestions that 10-year funding cycles and research programmes might be more appropriate than the current 3-5 norms. He expects Ministers to follow through quickly with the implementing rules needed to free up precision breeding techniques such as gene editing, after both Houses of Parliament approved the Genetic Technology (Precision Breeding) Act last year. But given the Labour party’s manifesto commitment to focus on wealth creation, he urges the new administration to go further in freeing up genetic innovation in agriculture, noting that the only place where UK science is creating wealth when it comes to GM crop research is North America. Blight resistant potatoes, purple tomatoes with increased antioxidant levels, and most recently omega-3 enriched camelina are all examples of GM crops worth billions of pounds which have been developed by public sector scientists in the UK, but commercialised in other countries with a more favourable regulatory landscape. Pointing to a recent Royal Society report calling for more proportionate, evidence-based regulation of GM crops, Professor Napier argues that after almost 30 years of safe and effective use of GM crops around the world, it is time for Britain to ditch the time-consuming, costly and restrictive rules we inherited from the EU, and unlock the potential economic and environmental benefits on offer.

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Pro-innovation think tank sets out five ag policy priorities for the next UK Government

As the general election approaches, the major political parties have emphasised the importance of domestic food security, and the need to achieve a better balance between farming and the environment. But the critical role of agricultural science and innovation in delivering those objectives has scarcely been mentioned. Here, five members of the pro-innovation think tank Science for Sustainable Agriculture set out their top policy recommendations for the next Government.

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The world is richer than ever, but it’s not due to communism or capitalism, it’s science

Hank Campbell

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Award-winning science writer Hank Campbell notes that proponents of competing political ideologies are keen to take the credit for the dramatic reductions in the number of people living in poverty seen over the past 70 years. The world is richer than ever, he says, but this is not because of communism or capitalism, it's advances in agricultural science supporting increased yields, allowing more room for nature and biodiversity, while elevating more people out of poverty and hunger. 

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Unfinished business? Next Government must prioritise implementing rules for precision breeding in agriculture  

Professor Mario Caccamo

It is hugely disappointing that the outgoing UK administration was not able to complete the implementation of its flagship legislation to free up the use of precision breeding techniques such as gene editing in agriculture. Time and time again the Precision Breeding Act was heralded by Ministers as an example of Britain flexing its new-found regulatory freedoms outside the EU to pursue a more pro-science, pro-innovation agenda. And yet at the end of this Government’s term in office, the new rules have still not come into effect. The potential to accelerate the development of crop varieties with increased yields, improved climate resilience and reduced environmental footprint will remain unrealised until the necessary implementing rules are introduced. Scientists, breeders, farmers, environmentalists and all those with an interest in freeing up the use of these promising new technologies must make that point clearly and unequivocally to Ministers and elected representatives in the next administration, urges NIAB chief executive Professor Mario Caccamo.    

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Yes, we can learn lessons from organic farming: it is not the way forward for a safe, secure or sustainable food supply

Matt Ridley & Daniel Pearsall

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The expansion of the human population to over seven billion people during the twentieth century was made possible by the enhancement of agricultural yields through innovation. As the world’s population expands towards ten billion, it is continued access to innovation, rather than new land, that will be needed to keep pace with increased food demand. And yet a number of European countries are still setting ambitious targets for an increase in the proportion of organically farmed land, which would reduce yields and rule out the use of land-sparing technologies such as GM and gene edited crops. Of course, people should be free to choose organic food. But policies designed to increase the amount of land under organic production are dangerously misguided because, as the evidence shows, they would make our food supply less safe, less secure and less sustainable, argue Matt Ridley and Daniel Pearsall.  

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Sustainable food production must focus on outcomes, not labels

Dr Derrick Wilkinson & Daniel Pearsall

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Recently published scientific studies comparing the environmental footprint of different farming systems challenge popular assumptions that premium-priced food labels such as welfare-friendly and organic represent more sustainable choices. In fact, the evidence indicates that they may be significantly worse for the planet in terms of resource use and greenhouse gas emissions. Rather than labels indicating particular farm types or systems, a move towards providing outcomes-based information on a product-by-product basis would offer consumers more meaningful choices. This would mean using consistent, science-based metrics to let consumers know how different products compare in terms of their impact on a range of sustainability factors, including land and water use, carbon emissions, as well as their effects on soil health, water quality and biodiversity. It would also provide the basis to embed farm-level data at the heart of an evidence-based policy agenda focused on securing the optimum balance between each unit of food produced and its external impacts across a range of societal concerns. It’s not rocket science. Let’s hope the next Government is paying attention, argue retired UK economist Dr Derrick Wilkinson and SSA co-ordinator Daniel Pearsall.   

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No big deal. Co-existence of precision bred and other crops in England

Julian Sturdy MP

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Arable farmer and politician Julian Sturdy MP outlines the recommendations of a new policy paper issued by the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Science and Technology in Agriculture, which concludes that farm-level co-existence between precision bred and other crops in England can be delivered through existing, well-established arrangements for meeting the quality and purity specifications of different end-markets. He also joins calls for more targeted action from the next Government to help registered organic producers source genuine organic seed, and so reduce their dependence on emergency use of non-organic seed.

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30% fall in UK organic area shows producers need access to better tools and technologies

David Hill

The area farmed organically in the UK declined by a further 2.1 per cent in 2023. It has fallen by more than 30 per cent over the past 15 years. When there is so much commercial interest and food industry hype around regenerative agriculture, and the need for more ‘nature-friendly’ farming, this is shockingly bad news for organic farming, acknowledges Norfolk arable farmer and registered organic processor, David Hill. Organic producers need access to better tools and technologies, he argues, and with the UK Government expected to look into the rules around the use of gene editing in organic farming, he urges the organic sector to embrace these new breeding methods to avoid terminal decline.        

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As the EU stalls, England must not let precision breeding opportunity slip

Nigel Moore

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With little progress now expected on the stalled gene editing file at EU level until 2026 at the earliest, plant breeder Nigel Moore says Britain has a golden opportunity to steal a march on our European counterparts, and to deliver on the Government’s vision to make the UK a science and technology superpower. The Precision Breeding Act has attracted strong interest from potential investors and innovators at home and overseas, supported by a trebling of Government funding for translational plant science. But he warns that this precision breeding opportunity could be at risk, due to concerns that provisions in the secondary legislation needed to implement the Act might lead to restrictive GM-style risk assessments and data requirements for precision bred products, and that the timetable for adopting the implementing regulations could be running out of road before a General Election is called. He urges MPs and Peers on all sides to recognise the risks of consigning British agriculture to the slow lane of science and technology, and to press Defra and FSA for fast and effective secondary legislation. Britain can take a genuinely world-leading position in the development and commercialisation of these transformational technologies. As the EU stalls, we must not let that opportunity slip, he argues.  

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Our food system is not broken!

Professor Mario Caccamo

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Faced with claims that we should shift our agricultural systems to embrace more agroecological farming practices, NIAB chief executive Professor Mario Caccamo cautions against reverting to low-input, low-yielding agriculture. Our food system is not broken, he argues, pointing to the success of agricultural innovation not only in minimising the amount of extra land required to feed a rapidly growing world population, but also in reducing farming’s direct impact on the environment. We don’t need to change course, he says. We need greater access to more innovative farming technologies. We need more of the same, only faster. 

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Is UK agriculture facing a downward spiral?

Paul Temple

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Mixed farmer Paul Temple warns that Defra’s Environmental Land Management (ELM) policies will not only affect UK food production, and increase our reliance on imports, they will also impact the infrastructure of the entire farming industry, for example in terms of its contribution to the rural economy, opportunities for the next generation, and its attractiveness for those investing in and bringing forward innovation. When the scientific evidence increasingly indicates that the best way to produce enough food, enhance biodiversity and tackle climate change is through high-yield, high-tech farming on as small an area as possible, the Government’s current policies risk irrevocably dismantling the fabric behind a productive farming industry, in favour of unproven and unmeasured environmental objectives. Defra’s own research has identified a high risk of displacement of food production as a result of yield-reducing ELM options, with unknown effects on either domestic food security or the environment. It’s time Ministers took heed and changed course, he argues.

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Fresh approach needed to secure UK organic seed supply

Dr Anthony Hopkins

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Twenty years since a Government-funded database was established to help organic farmers source supplies of organically produced seed, and despite a long-term decline in the UK organic area, emergency derogations allowing organic growers to use non-organic seed are at a record high. This raises concerns over the need to maintain consumer confidence in the integrity of organic production, and to prevent unfair competition with conventional growers. In addition, the prospect of widespread uptake of new precision breeding techniques, which the organic industry prohibits, suggests alternative policy approaches are needed to ensure a reliable supply of certified organic seed in the future, argues BSPB head of policy Dr Anthony Hopkins.     

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Food labelling schemes are not helping consumers make informed sustainability choices, nor rewarding the most sustainable farmers

Dr Harriet Bartlett

In a study published recently in the journal Nature Food, a team of researchers from the Universities of Oxford, Cambridge and São Paulo conclude that the way we classify farm types and label pork isn’t helping consumers to make informed decisions when it comes to buying more sustainable meat. Instead of singling out particular farm types or practices, the research highlights a need to focus on meaningful, measurable outcomes, and reward individual farms based on these. Lead author Dr Harriet Bartlett discusses the findings.  

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What is (risk) appropriate regulation of gene editing technology?

Graham Brookes & Stuart Smyth

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Despite the much-hyped expectation that Europe was on course to follow other parts of the world in removing GMO-style regulatory requirements from gene edited (GE) crops, with EU elections looming and no agreement in sight the bloc now risks slipping back towards precautionary inertia. Summarising their recent peer-reviewed paper exploring risk-appropriate regulation for gene editing, agricultural economists Graham Brookes and Stuart Smyth warn that we must learn the lessons from past experience of divergent international regulation of agricultural innovations. The impact of over-precautionary EU regulation of gene editing will not only disadvantage European agriculture, but will also compromise global efforts to address urgent climate, biodiversity and food security challenges, they argue.     

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The importance of translating plant science into practice

Professor Mario Caccamo

The lack of long-term strategic funding for research organisations that are focused on translational research, as recently reported in the media, raises serious concerns about the future of applied crop science in the UK. Efforts to translate fundamental scientific discoveries into practical farming innovations which can boost productivity while addressing climate and biodiversity challenges are too slow and fragmented when compared to other countries. Bridging this ‘valley of death’ may require a major re-organisation of our R&D landscape, suggests NIAB chief executive Professor Mario Caccamo. 

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ELMS: It’s time for Defra to go back to the drawing board, and listen to the science

Matt Ridley

In the first of a series of essays examining the impact of farming innovations on food production and the environment, science writer, author and farmer Matt Ridley argues that the UK Government is squandering opportunities to accelerate the adoption of yield-boosting advances on Britain’s farms which could increase food production while freeing up land for nature. In pursuing a land-sharing approach to farm policy, Defra Ministers are failing to heed their own scientific advice, let alone the accumulating body of scientific evidence which supports a land-sparing approach as the most effective policy option to produce enough food while leaving room for nature, biodiversity and climate action.

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ELMS: Defra not heeding the multiple warning signs from their own science on land-sharing vs land-sparing. Is this a leap in the dark for Britain’s farmers?

A pro-innovation think tank is calling on MPs to investigate the impact of the Government’s environmental land management schemes (ELMS) on domestic food security after a Defra-funded scientific review identified multiple risks to both food production and the environment from its land-sharing policies.

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Sustainable Yield Growth - a gamechanger for the SDGs?

Dr Derrick Wilkinson

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A 70% increase in global demand for food by 2050, set against urgent biodiversity and climate pressures, requires an unprecedented transformation of our food system. This challenge can in part be mitigated by reducing food losses and waste, and through dietary change. On their own, however, these measures will not be enough. Promoting sustainable yield growth provides the most powerful solution to meeting the growing food needs of billions of hungry people, while protecting biodiversity and improving the health of the ecosystems on which we all rely. If real progress is to be made toward the Sustainable Development Goals and Paris climate agreements, the technical and technological innovations at the heart of sustainable yield growth must be given the highest priority, argues retired UK economist Dr Derrick Wilkinson.

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False dawn for gene edited crops in the EU?

Steven E Cerier

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With Europe’s agriculture sector in turmoil, as farmers stage mass protests against unworkable environmental restrictions, new breeding technologies such as gene editing could go a long way in helping the EU achieve its sustainability goals. Considering the bloc’s stringent, historical opposition to GMOs in agriculture, the European Parliament’s recent decision to adopt looser rules for the cultivation of NBTs is a significant step forward. But the regulatory regime being proposed is not likely to set the stage for a full-scale food revolution in the EU. Without a commitment to complete deregulation, Europe will remain a genetic engineering backwater for decades to come, argues retired international economist Steven Cerier.

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Why the Nuffield Council on Bioethics must revisit its report on genome editing in farmed animals 

Professor the Lord Trees & Lord Curry of Kirkharle 

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Leading veterinarian Lord Trees and veteran farming champion Lord Curry of Kirkharle explain why they have called on the Nuffield Council on Bioethics to revise and update its 2021 report on the ethics of genome editing in farmed animals. They challenge the report’s characterisation of our food production system as ‘morally indefensible and unsustainable’, citing evidence of significant and ongoing improvements in livestock breeding and welfare improvements, driven by science. They also warn of the report’s disproportionately negative impact on the political and public debate, urging Nuffield to take greater account of the ethical implications of not embracing a technology with the potential to deliver solutions to previously intractable disease problems, such as bird flu in poultry, PRRS in pigs and BVD in cattle.   

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Focus on genetics and IP needed to boost Britain's horticulture sector

Peter Button

A recent one-off House of Lords inquiry into the challenges facing the horticulture industry, and the ensuing report entitled ‘Sowing the Seeds: A blooming English horticultural sector’, was a missed opportunity to put the essential genetic research, plant breeding and seed sectors which support the industry on a more secure footing, writes former UPOV Vice Secretary-General Peter Button.

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Crop biotechnology opponents are losing their war against genetic engineering, but the battle for science is not yet won

Steven E. Cerier

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After years of reaping the tainted rewards of disinformation, the ground is shifting against anti-biotech activists. The world’s eight most populous countries now either grow GM crops and or have approved the deregulation of gene-edited crops. That’s more than 50 percent of the global population. But for a number of countries, GMOs still remain in regulatory limbo as a residue of the Frankenfood branding by anti-biotech campaigners. In an ideal, science-driven world, with overwhelming evidence that both transgenic and gene-edited crops pose no identifiable unique health or environmental threats, the two complementary breeding techniques would face minimal regulatory hurdles. We will eventually look back upon this period of hyped worries and predictions of impending environmental catastrophe and be mystified at what all the fuss was about, writes Steven Cerier.

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Harnessing the power of farm-level data

George Freeman MP

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Former UK science minister George Freeman MP explains his longstanding passion, first inspired by the US Field to Market programme, for using farm-level data to drive improvements in sustainable, efficient food production, and to inform consumers about the environmental impact of their food choices. He reflects on his disappointment that the pivotal role envisaged for agrimetrics in the UK Agri-Tech Strategy has not yet transpired in practice, but highlights two recent developments which give cause for optimism that Britain may get back on track to mirror the US in harnessing the enormous potential of agricultural data and sustainability metrics.

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